AI Insights


The above Map demonstrates the trade route from west to India for shipping. 

 

This blog post has been authored by Harsha Vardhan, Chief Executive Officer at Arthashastra Intelligence

Introduction
From late November 2023, Yemen-based Houthi rebels have been targeting shipping vessels passing through the Red Sea. The targeting of vessels massively disrupted Global Value Chains (GVC) and distribution networks leading to increased shipping costs and transit times. This trade route through the Suez Canal has significant influence on global trade and is evident from its significant 12% share in global maritime trade. If this trade route holds such importance, it begs the question: What are the reasons behind leaving such a critical trade route, with considerable commercial implications, unprotected? Who are the Houthi rebels, and what are their reasons for launching attacks on ships navigating through maritime routes? What is Indian and global response ?

Importance of Red Sea
Red Sea, along with its vital Suez Canal, serves as a critical link bridging the eastern and western worlds. This strategic link enables ships to traverse the Red Sea instead of circumnavigating the entire African continent through the Cape of Good Hope. It is also known that Cape of Good Hope is prone to unpredictable storms which further delays the shipments. The significance of this trade route cannot be overstated, with approximately 12% of global shipments, totalling around 17,000 vessels, passing through it, facilitating a staggering $1 trillion in global trade.

Who are the Houthi rebels?
The Houthi rebels are Iran backed political and religious group that champions the Shia cause. They have laid siege on the Sanaa, capital of Yemen and since laid siege to most of Yemen. The Houthis started attacking ships in the Red Sea as a campaign of solidarity with Palestinians during the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza. They view themselves as champions of resistance against Israel and have targeted ships they believe are Israeli-owned or heading to Israeli ports, although many attacked vessels have no connection to Israel. The Houthis have been attacking ships since October 2023, but it has taken a bad turn of events when they hijacked ‘Galaxy Leader’, an Israeli owned vessel heading from Körfez, Turkey to Pipavav, India. The attacks bear semblance to the Iranian military influence often using sophisticated missiles and coordinated drone attacks. The threat from Houthi rebels is real and should not be underestimated given is catastrophic consequences in the global commerce.

Impact of red sea explained in detail
The red sea route is extremely important for the western nations in particular the European nations and the United States. In the past when the suez canal was blocked by a ship which was stuck, it created ripples through the entire supply chain and logistics sectors as more than 300 ships were stuck for days and it took months to rebuild and normalise the supply chain, the current red sea issue is much more significant. In early March, the Rubymar, a British-owned cargo ship, fell victim to a Houthi strike, marking a significant escalation. Laden with 21,000 tonnes of fertilizer, the sinking of this vessel poses a threat to the fragile ecosystem of the Red Sea due to potential environmental damage. The repercussions of this incident extend beyond environmental concerns. This disruption in maritime trade routes has led to a significant increase in transit times, with delays ranging from 14 to 21 days. Moreover, the cost of shipping from India to the UK has surged from $600 to $1500, exacerbating financial burdens across affected regions.

Global response to red sea
In a bid to combat the threat posed by Houthi rebels in the Red Sea, the United States, along with 22 other nations, has spearheaded the formation of Operation Prosperity Guardian. Operating under the Combined Maritime Forces and led by Task Force 153, predominantly under U.S. Navy command, this coalition signifies a robust commitment to maritime security in the region.

India flexes its muscle to protect the trade route
India’s proactive stance in the region has been particularly notable and received acclamation. Most often Indian navy was the first responder to distress calls by shipping vessels. On January 5th, the Indian Navy deployed a significant naval force, including five missile destroyers, a replenishment ship, a P-8I anti-submarine patrol aircraft, and a Sea Guardian drone, to protect vital shipping routes from the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to the Indian coast. This deployment showcases India’s readiness and capability to ensure maritime security. In addition to its military efforts, India has actively engaged with South Asian nations to foster joint military and surveillance operations. This diplomatic outreach underscores the importance of regional cooperation in addressing shared security concerns and enhancing maritime security in the Red Sea region.

While immediate responses are crucial, a lasting solution requires addressing underlying geopolitical tensions. Particularly, resolving the Gaza conflict is paramount, as it would help mitigate conditions conducive to extremism and threats to maritime security in the long run.

References:
1. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67614911
2. https://www.ttnews.com/articles/red-sea-conflict-global-trade
3. https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/india-can-survive-the-red-sea-crisis-says-head-of-us-india-forum/article67807543.ece
4. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/how-houthi-rebel-attacks-in-the-red-sea-threaten-global-shipping
5. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/foreign-trade/exporters-face-rising-costs-after-houthi-red-sea-attacks/articleshow/106873651.cms?from=mdr
6. https://www.axios.com/2024/01/12/us-uk-strike-yemen-houthi-rebels-red-sea
7. https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3644831/strikes-against-houthis-likely-effective-in-degrading-rebel-groups-capabilities/
8. http://eng.chinamil.com.cn/OPINIONS_209196/Opinions_209197/16284048.html
9. https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/573013af3b6545deaeb50ed1cbaf9444